Impact of AI on Jobs: Uncovering the Realities of a Transformative Technology Wave
Why AI cannot be dismissed as just another technology "outbreak"
Work, Life, Business
I often encounter a common refrain from readers, colleagues, and friends, “You seem excessively concerned about artificial intelligence," they say. "Isn't it just another technological wave? We've witnessed numerous technological advancements in the past like the Internet, computers, and smartphones. Why should we be alarmed?"
While I don't consider myself an alarmist — I prefer to think of myself as a realist, a pragmatic individual — I have my concerns.
Allow me to explain why we mustn't make the mistake of regarding AI as merely another technological wave.
Previous technologies have always had humans at the helm. However, there is a high probability that AI might not require any human involvement in the near future. This is precisely why some AI experts caution against potential doomsday scenarios and why figures like Elon Musk have written letters of caution to governments.
AI is already capable, in certain cases, of learning and adapting without any human intervention or supervision. The question of machines eventually overtaking humankind weighs heavily on our minds. Unlike traditional software designed for specific tasks, guided by the human mind, AI tools possess the ability to learn and adapt to new situations. This enables it to address a wide range of problems, and it can continue to improve over time, often without human intervention.
To illustrate its self-learning capabilities, consider machine learning (ML), a type of AI that enables computers to learn without explicit programming. ML algorithms learn from data instead. For instance, an algorithm can be trained to recognize faces by being shown a substantial number of face images. Once trained, the algorithm can then identify faces in new images. Now add neural networks (AI) to this mix and suddenly, facial recognition through traditional ML pales.
Eli David, a renowned AI researcher, lecturer, and co-founder of several deep learning-based companies, on ML through neural networks has explained this in detail. I will try and reduce the complexities in what Eli has said:
Deep learning is different from traditional machine learning because it takes a special approach to finding important things in data. In regular ML, human experts have to figure out and describe those important things, like recognizing faces. But it's hard to explain this process, especially for complex tasks like face recognition.
On the other hand, deep learning uses something called neural networks, which can find important things in data without someone telling them explicitly. They do this by looking directly at the details, like the colors of pixels. This amazing discovery has pushed AI forward, leading to exciting progress and really accurate results in recent years.
Source: Forbes
In short, what Eli is saying is that deep learning-based AI models have the ability to learn complex patterns without relying on any inputs provided by human experts! This capability to learn and adapt on its own is what makes AI so powerful. And, worrisome.
To reiterate, certain AI tools even today can make decisions based on data without being explicitly programmed to do so by humans.
And if things continue along these lines, it’s predicted that there will soon be something called “Strong AI”. This means a machine will be developed with human-level intelligence, possessing self-awareness, problem-solving capabilities, learning abilities, and future-planning skills. Like a kid, the machine will learn and grow through inputs and experiences, continuously improving and expanding its capabilities, and with time, not requiring any human inputs or management!
So, to the skeptics out there, let me caution: Do not be dismissive of AI. It is not “just another piece of technology”.
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Jobs That May Survive AI Juggernaut
A Goldman Sachs report in March 2023, which I referred to in a previous newsletter, has said AI with the ability to generate content could potentially replace 25% of the tasks currently performed by humans. It also predicted that in the European Union and the United States, approximately 300 million jobs could be lost due to automation.
Enough about job losses. I tried to do the reverse this week by researching the jobs that AI would not be able to take away from humans.
My search brought me to Martin Ford and his book, “Rule of the Robots: How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform Everything”. Martin says there are still things AI isn’t capable of - tasks that involve distinctly human qualities, like emotional intelligence and outside-the-box thinking.
Martin has identified three categories of jobs that he believes will be less susceptible to automation in the near future.
#1 Jobs that involve genuine creativity: These are tasks that require innovative thinking and strategic problem-solving. While AI may take over roles related to graphic design and visual arts, professions that involve devising new legal strategies or crafting original business plans are likely to remain in the domain of humans. Essentially, any work that cannot be reduced to a formula or template, but demands fresh and inventive ideas, falls under this category.
#2 Jobs that rely on sophisticated interpersonal relationships: These occupations necessitate a deep understanding of people and the ability to build and nurture relationships. AI may struggle to replicate the complex nuances and empathy required in fields such as counseling, therapy, or certain aspects of sales and marketing, where human connection and emotional intelligence are paramount.
#3 Jobs that demand mobility, dexterity, and problem-solving in unpredictable environments: Skilled trades such as electricians, plumbers, welders, and similar occupations fall into this category. These roles involve regularly encountering novel situations and demand a combination of physical agility, adaptability, and analytical thinking. The unpredictable nature of these jobs makes them challenging to automate effectively.
In summary, Martin suggests that jobs requiring genuine creativity, deep interpersonal understanding, and hands-on problem-solving in unpredictable scenarios are more likely to resist automation in the foreseeable future.
Source: BBC
The Power of “UnAI-able”: Creativity, Empathy, and Judgement Are Human Competencies Machines Cannot Offer
In the midst of discussions and debates about the capabilities of AI and its impact on industries, we need to pause and consider the competencies that human decision-making offers.
While AI can automate and streamline certain tasks, it cannot replace the complex decision-making abilities of humans. So not everything is lost to AI, and some of it never will postulate some scientists.
In a well-articulated article, data expert Brandeis Marshall has said that instead of emphasizing the projected adoption of AI across various aspects of our lives, it is worth directing attention to what cannot be accomplished through AI.
She talks of the concept of "unAI-able", which pertains to actions, tasks, and skills that are not easily digitized or automated. These particular routines rely on the constant involvement of humans to make critical and pivotal decisions. Consequently, Brandeis has identified three categories of human-driven decision-making competencies as essential requirements in every sector and industry, both presently and in the foreseeable future.
Therefore, it is crucial for industries to focus on three key competencies that humans can offer: creativity, empathy, and judgment.
These are:
#Creativity: a fundamental human competency that allows for innovation and problem-solving. While AI can generate solutions based on data, it lacks the ability to think outside the box and come up with new ideas.
#Empathy: is another key competency that humans offer. Empathy allows individuals to understand and connect with the needs and emotions of others. This is particularly important in industries that involve direct interaction with customers or clients. While AI can provide efficient and accurate responses, it cannot replicate the emotional connection that humans can establish.
#Judgment: is a crucial competency that humans possess. Judgment involves the ability to assess and make decisions based on complex information and situational context. AI can provide data-driven recommendations, but it cannot replace human judgment in making decisions that consider ethical, moral, and social implications.
While AI offers many advantages and opportunities for industries, it cannot replace the fundamental competencies that humans possess. Creativity, empathy, and judgment are essential skills that every industry needs to prioritize in order to thrive in today's rapidly changing world.
Source: Medium
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OpenAI Boss Says Don’t Worry, Calm Down
The boss of OpenAI, the company that started it all last November is now telling the world that his firm's technology would not destroy the job market as he sought to calm fears about the march of AI.
The 38-year-old Sam Altman was on a global tour when he made these remarks in Paris. AI would not -- as some have warned -- wipe out whole sectors of the workforce through automation, feels Sam.
When someone pointed out to him how the News industry had started moving over to generative AI tools, Sam’s response was…. “ChatGPT should instead be like giving a journalist 100 assistants to help them research and come up with ideas.”
Source: Japan Today
The End of Human Make-up Artists and Costume Designers?
Freddy Chávez Olmos, an AI creative director, recently demonstrated the potential of AI tools in altering the makeup of actors in an existing commercial film. By utilizing advanced technologies like Leonardo.Ai and EbSynth, Olmos showcased a video that showcased the transformative capabilities of AI.
While these AI tools may not be ready for widespread use just yet, they provide a glimpse into the future of content creation. The future holds the promise of user-friendly AI tools that can modify a person's makeup with the same ease as applying a TikTok beautifier filter. From subtle adjustments to striking transformations, individuals will have the power to customize an actor's appearance.
Although the current cost-effectiveness of this technology may not be optimal, ongoing advancements are expected to address this limitation. The impressive display by Olmos highlights the potential impact of AI in production environments and foreshadows a future where anyone can harness these tools to unleash their creativity.
Source: Fast Company
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What About the Other Kind of Designers? Are They in Danger, too?
It is almost a given that certain jobs will go over to AI. Like writers, there’s apprehension that AI could come for graphic designers, too.
In this thought-provoking article, the writer offers a way out and talks of how designers need to face the march of AI. Designers must embrace a more abstract mindset, approaching their work with systematic and paradigmatic thinking. It is crucial for them to develop a deep comprehension of both existing and upcoming communication platforms and how humans interact with technology. Additionally, designers should possess the skill to communicate seamlessly across multiple channels simultaneously.
Limiting the scope of a designer's job to a rigid set of repetitive tasks would indeed make innovations like Midjourney a potential threat. However, if we perceive the role of a designer as encompassing the communication and meaningful connection of ideas with humans, then AI image generation becomes an additional tool and avenue for creative expression.
Within this evolving landscape, designers fulfill three crucial roles.
Firstly, they are creators, tasked with organizing knowledge and representing perceptions.
Secondly, designers are translators, seamlessly navigating between different contexts, platforms, and cultures.
Lastly, designers are articulators, providing clarity to thoughts and emotions. These roles will remain essential both now and in the future.
To remain relevant in the age of AI, designers must demonstrate adaptability and forward-thinking. Their focus should be on developing a comprehensive understanding of the communication landscape and human-technology interactions. By embracing the key roles of creating, translating, and articulating, designers can successfully navigate this new terrain.
Source: Fast Company
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US Agency Says These Jobs Will Go In Next 10 Years
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has put out some interesting projections. It has said automation and artificial intelligence will lead to a loss of approximately 2.1 million jobs in the US economy over the next ten years. However, during the same period, the economy is anticipated to generate 10.4 million new jobs, resulting in a net creation of eight million jobs by 2031.
The impact of AI on employment is expected to be more significant for individuals without a college or advanced degree, and niche occupations integrating AI may face greater challenges compared to general automation.
For example, cashiers and bank tellers are projected to experience a workforce reduction of ten to eleven percent, while word processors and typists could see a staggering 38.2% decrease in job roles due to AI integration.
Furthermore, the rise of voice-to-text AI technology may also lead to job losses for workers who support academics by compiling sources and annotating content. In summary, while the growth of automation and AI will result in job losses, the economy is expected to create more jobs than it eliminates over the next decade.
However, workers without a college or advanced degree are likely to face greater challenges, and industries experiencing growth should consider how to absorb these workers. Additionally, smaller niche occupations may experience more substantial impacts from AI integrations compared to general automation.
Source: AS
Voice-over and Dubbing Actor Loses Job to AI
Yes, that’s right. We are all aware by now how AI is posing a threat to the jobs of creative professionals, including voice-over and dubbing actors. In just a few months, the impact of AI on employment has become evident, leading many professionals to call for regulations or limitations on its use.
Alejandro Graue, an Argentine actor, with an 18-year career in dubbing, has expressed fear that AI would bring an end to his profession after what happened to him on one assignment.
Alejandro was hired to provide Spanish dubbing for a popular YouTube channel with millions of subscribers, only to discover that the channel had uploaded a new video with an artificial voice in Spanish. The company confirmed that they no longer required his services for dubbing, and the actor suspects that they used low-cost software as the sound quality was poor.
That is the advantage that AI offers over humans; it is cost-effective. Because of the cost-saving advantages of AI, companies have tried to substitute human manpower with AI, some with success, and some without.
Source: Euro News
Six Challenges to be Addressed for Alignment of AI With Human Values
If humans want to ensure AI remains under their control, a new study has outlined six vital challenges that must be addressed by humanity to ensure the reliability, safety, trustworthiness, and alignment with human values of artificial intelligence systems.
A team of researchers, led by Ozlem Garibay, an assistant professor in UCF's Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, has published a study in the International Journal of Human-Computer Interaction.
The first challenge focuses on human well-being.
The second challenge revolves around responsible AI, which prioritizes human and societal well-being throughout the AI lifecycle while upholding human values and minimizing the risks of unintended consequences and ethical transgressions.
Privacy constitutes the third challenge, emphasizing the careful consideration of data collection, usage, and dissemination in AI systems to protect individuals' privacy.
The fourth challenge is centered on design, advocating for human-centered design principles that classify AI systems based on risk levels.
The fifth addresses governance and oversight, highlighting the necessity for a comprehensive governance framework that encompasses the entire AI lifecycle—from conception to development to deployment.
The sixth challenge, human-AI interaction, underscores the importance of interactions based on the fundamental principle of respecting human cognitive capacities. Humans must retain full control and accountability for the behavior and outcomes of AI systems, promoting an ethical and equitable relationship between humans and AI.
Source: My Science Insider
https://www.ucf.edu/news/researchers-identify-6-challenges-humans-face-with-artificial-intelligence/
Hey, There’s a Machine in My Machine
HP Inc.'s CEO, Enrique Lores, expressed to CNBC's Jim Cramer that AI will bring about revolutionary changes in the personal computer industry, particularly for his company.
Lores emphasized the potential for creating a new category of AI-enabled PCs that will significantly drive the market's refresh. These innovative models will empower users to construct spreadsheets and analyze data at unprecedented speeds.
Instead of spending hours manually analyzing figures, AI will enable instantaneous spreadsheet creation, data analysis, and even provide insights through interactive dialogue.
These AI-enabled PCs are expected to enter the market as early as 2024, presenting an unparalleled opportunity for innovation and addressing new customer needs.
Source: CNBC
AI Risk on Par with Pandemic and Nuclear Threats, Warn Experts
A coalition comprising scientists and industry leaders, including executives from Microsoft and Google, has issued a statement expressing grave concerns about the risks associated with AI and its impact on humanity.
They consider addressing these risks as a global priority, on par with other major existential threats like pandemics and nuclear war. The statement comes amidst growing apprehension regarding AI systems surpassing human intelligence and operating beyond human control, particularly exemplified by advanced AI chatbots such as ChatGPT.
The statement from this coalition underscores the deep concerns within the tech industry regarding the potential risks associated with AI. They emphasized that the threat of AI leading to the extinction of humanity requires urgent attention comparable to the handling of pandemics and nuclear war.
Source: Fast Company
These Guys Actually Evaluated Six Global AI Regulation Efforts
Concerns have been raised regarding the regulation of AI due to its potential impact on various aspects of society. One major concern revolves around the ethical implications of AI, including issues related to privacy, bias, and discrimination. There is a need to ensure that AI systems are developed and deployed in a manner that respects individual rights and avoids perpetuating societal inequalities.
An article in MIT Technology Review has now examined six international endeavors aimed at regulating AI, assessed the advantages and disadvantages of each approach, and assigned them approximate scores to indicate their level of influence.
The first approach involves the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI), an international organization comprising 15 countries and the European Union.
The second approach centers on the nonbinding principles established by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). These principles outline the values that should guide AI development and emphasize its contribution to economic growth.
National regulations form the third approach to regulating AI. Countries like China and the United States have implemented their own regulatory frameworks. However, the lack of international coordination in this regard may result in a fragmented landscape of conflicting regulations that impede innovation and growth, the report said.
The fourth approach involves industry self-regulation. Companies such as Microsoft and Google have issued ethical AI guidelines. Nonetheless, concerns remain regarding the adequacy of self-regulation in addressing all potential risks associated with AI.
Public-private partnerships represent the fifth approach to AI regulation. For instance, the UK government has established the Centre for Data Ethics and Innovation, which brings together industry experts, academics, and civil society to develop ethical guidelines for AI.
The final approach centers on international treaties. The Council of Europe is actively working on a legally binding treaty that would require signatories to ensure the development and application of AI in a manner that safeguards human rights, democracy, and the rule of law. While treaties can be effective, they are challenging to negotiate and may not be universally adopted by all countries.
Source: MIT
Bad Data Means Bad AI
AI and data expert Chiarra Sue in an article has sought to draw attention to the choices regarding data selection and integration in the development of AI. Sometimes we do tend to forget that the present generation of AI works on datasets keyed in by humans.
What Chiarra says is that it's important to recognize that data is not inherently unbiased and its quality can vary significantly. Data professionals are aware of its potential complexities, including inaccuracies, gaps, fraudulent elements, and subjective interpretations. As a result, two potential outcomes emerge:
(a) unintentional data misinterpretation
(b) deliberate data manipulation.
Unintentional data misinterpretation can arise from issues like inaccuracies, biases, and gaps in the data. For instance, biased data favoring a specific group can lead to AI systems that perpetuate discrimination. Similarly, incomplete data can result in flawed or erroneous conclusions.
On the other hand, intentional data manipulation by individuals or organizations seeking personal gain is a genuine concern. This manipulation may involve falsifying data or creating fake accounts to generate misleading information.
To tackle these challenges, it is vital to carefully evaluate the quality and sources of data used in AI systems. This entails ensuring diversity, fairness, and representativeness of the data in relation to the target population, says the writer. Additionally, implementing protocols to detect and address data manipulation is crucial.
Source: Medium