Will the "Luddite Fallacy" Claim AI Technology as Its Next Victim?
Many predictions in the past erroneously said new tech would lead to massive job losses for workers. Every recession was partly blamed on automation, but that, too, was proven wrong.
I start today’s newsletter on a lighter note. Guess what was the most talked about topic after Apple held its event to launch the iPhone 15 Pro? Not the phone but it was the company’s refusal to use the word “artificial intelligence” during the event. In fact, die-hard fans say Apple has not used the term “AI” even at its previous public outings. Now, why would that be, I wonder? Does Apple plan to call AI by some other name, at some later date? It does have the tech, that much we know.
Moving ahead, do you think that pessimists are negatively portraying the impact of AI on employment? This newsletter specifically tracks the influence of AI on global employment (and is perhaps the only one so far). I have tried to stay neutral here in this AI vs. Human debate, but truth be told, occasionally, even I’ve wondered when and not if machines will replace humans.
Much of this state of alarm may be attributed to what some economists call the “Luddite Fallacy”. In a paper titled, “Artificial Intelligence - A Threat To Middle-Class White-Collar Jobs?” for Macdonald-Laurier Institute (MLI), Canada’s only truly national public policy think tank, writer and macro-economist Philip Cross has referred to it, too. You will find a detailed report as you scroll down.
The term "Luddite Fallacy" was coined to describe the fear that every innovation would have a lasting harmful effect on employment. Which is exactly what’s happening in the case of AI with many predicting it’s goodbye jobs, especially white-collar ones.
This view that technology is likely to lead to long-term unemployment, however, has been repeatedly challenged by a section of the world’s economists. This lobby says the “fallacy” ignores the fact that productivity gains from technological innovation always have in the long and short terms generated more income and jobs. So, in short, these folks are of the view that every innovation or change in society like the Industrial Revolution has, in fact, led to long-term employment rather than job cuts. Of course, ranged against this lot are those “experts” who continue to insist that AI will lead to some amount of job loss.
Personally, I would love it if no jobs were lost. But that’s Utopian. At the same time, the anti-Luddite Fallacy lobby may have overlooked one fact: AI is not “just any other innovation”. Its intrinsic nature and evolving form may potentially lead to the dominance of artificial intelligence over human cognition and intellect. Unlike conventional machines, AI is progressively evolving into a "thinking" entity, and as such, its impact could unfold in multiple ways. One of them is on employment.
The jury is still out, though. Perhaps some day, we will have an answer. Till then, keep reading this newsletter and remain updated!
And now, as is the norm, before I go ahead, let’s take a look at last week’s Job Indicator to see who was ahead in the race.
In Today’s Newsletter:
We Could Be Wrong To Predict That AI Will Gobble Up Jobs: Paper
EY’s Huge Investment in AI: A Way of Things to Come?
90% of Jobs Are at Risk: Indian CEO
Survey Reveals Continued Fascination with AI, Despite Indications of Market Saturation
Telltale: When a Writer is Replaced with a Machine
Getting an AI Assistant is Now Easy
Retail Banking is Pivoting
Give Ear to Pro-AI Advocates, Not Just the Anti-AI Lobby
Quantum Computing Will be Even Bigger Than AI, Say Experts
Stanford Study Shows LLMs Can Mimic Human Behavior
AI Can Deceive Just Like Humans, Research Shows
Google Sets Up $20 Million Project For AI Opportunities
Elon Musk, Other Top AI Leaders Meet US Lawmakers
Amazon Requires AI Kindle Direct Authors to Disclose AI Utilization
Eight US AI Developers Join Initiative for Responsible Generative AI Development
Google CEO Sundar Pichai Foresees AI as the Most Profound Technological Shift of Our Time
plus Events, TopPick, and much more.
We Could Be Wrong To Predict That AI Will Gobble Up Jobs: Paper
There is a long history of erroneous predictions that new technologies lead to massive job losses for workers. While every recession in the past century has been at least partly blamed on automation, these pessimistic forecasts were all incorrect because of what economists call “the Luddite Fallacy,” which ignores the fact that productivity gains from technological innovation always have immediately or eventually generated more income and jobs.
A new paper by economist Philip Cross on behalf of one of Canada’s well-known think tanks “MLI” has pointed out that over the last two centuries, job losses on farms and factories that resulted from new technologies were balanced by workers upgrading their skills and moving to new occupations where demand was rising due to higher incomes generated by productivity gains.
Few of the lost jobs were missed as most of the work replaced during the early Industrial Revolution was repetitive, routine, and often dangerous.
While economists and pundits worried for decades that robots and automation would destroy millions of jobs, outside of cyclical recessions, employment rates have risen steadily, to record highs, wrote Philip.
Much of the difficulty of forecasting the impact of technology on the labor market stems from the challenge of predicting how technology itself will evolve. Overall, AI is likely to make workers more productive and therefore more desirable to employers, the paper maintained.
The implementation of AI technology was likely to roll out slowly, which would help employers and workers adapt to its use, says this man who once was the Chief Economic Analyst with Statistics Canada. Philip’s paper is one of the best on AI I’ve come across so far. It takes a far more balanced view than most other points of view.
History shows us that even the most transformative technologies, such as electricity or the internal combustion engine, required decades to be widely diffused. A prolonged period of adaptation seemed inevitable for AI, too, according to Philip.
Some excerpts from the paper: While the potential capabilities of AI are often exaggerated, human abilities are routinely underrated. Humans retain key abilities that machines cannot duplicate or replace. Human beings are underrated even in highly technical fields such as machine learning, AI, and cloud computing. Machines may replace some jobs, but humans are too intelligent, creative, versatile, and adaptable to not find interesting work to do.
Source: MLI
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EY Invests Huge In AI
This newsletter is not into reporting on AI funding, startups, deals, investments, etc.
However, I am bringing this development to the attention of my readers because of the impact it is surely going to have on finance professionals and their future.
The Development: Financial professional services firm EY (Ernst & Young) has introduced EY.ai, a comprehensive platform that unites human expertise with AI to assist clients in the responsible and confident adoption of AI for business transformation. EY.ai harnesses EY's cutting-edge technology platforms and AI capabilities, combined with extensive proficiency in strategy, transactions, transformation, risk management, assurance, and tax, all enriched by a robust AI ecosystem.
The Details: EY has invested a total US $1.4 billion, forming the bedrock of the EY.ai platform. These investments have facilitated the integration of AI into EY's proprietary technologies, such as EY Fabric, utilized by 60,000 EY clients and over 1.5 million unique users. Additionally, these investments have played a pivotal role in supporting EY's acquisitions of technology assets, including cloud and automation technologies.
The Impact: It seems to be an effort to combine AI with human resources by EY. EY.ai combines vast business experience with AI embedded in EY technology platforms and solutions. The rollout of EY.ai EYQ, a large language model, in addition to upskilling AI learning and development for EY people will perhaps become an example for other competitors to emulate.
Source: ey.com
Introducing Our New Segment: I lost My Job To AI
Machines are taking over jobs worldwide. Sometimes in bulk, other times, individual jobs. The human worker who has been given the pink slip suddenly finds that nobody is listening. But we care. If you have lost your job to a machine, and want to tell the world about the impact on your life, and perhaps how you are weathering the blow, send us an email to marketing (at) newagecontentservices.com with the subject line: “I Lost”. No matter where you are located.
We shall revert ASAP. *
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Indian Fintech co CEO Says 90% of Jobs Are In Danger Because of AI
Kunal Shah, CEO of Indian fintech company “Cred” has said that around 90% of people's jobs were in danger due to AI.
In a conversation with CNBC-TV18 recently, Shah said that at the moment, the world had not 'realized the risk of AI'. He added that he was confident about 90% of people losing their jobs in the next decade.
Source: indiatoday.in
Persistent Engagement with ChatGPT: Survey Highlights Ongoing Interest in AI, Despite Signs of Saturation
As the initial excitement surrounding ChatGPT diminishes, a notable subset of AI enthusiasts continues to interact with this talkative bot on a daily basis, employing it for tasks ranging from fretting over work-related emails to seeking shopping recommendations.
A recent Salesforce survey of about 4,000 consumers in the US, the UK, Australia and India, said approximately half of the respondents had experimented with large language models (LLMs) or other generative AI applications, and around one-third of those individuals maintain daily usage.
Furthermore, the study uncovered a generational discrepancy in the adoption of this technology, with Gen Z and millennials constituting 65% of the user base. In fact, 70% of Gen Z participants reported having used such AI applications.
Interestingly, this survey coincides with emerging indications that consumers might be experiencing a waning interest in LLMs. The report said consumers were divided whether AI was helpful or not.
Source: emergingtechbrew.com
A Tale of Woe: When A Writer is Replaced With AI
Matías S. Zavia, a former Gizmodo employee, voiced his criticism on Twitter on Gizmodo’s decision to replace him as a writer and editor with AI for translation tasks on their “Gizmodo en Español” website. His tweet serves to underline the impact AI is having on employment.
Matías has accused the website of becoming a "translation self-publisher" and highlighted the potential consequences of AI in the workforce. He becomes yet one more fellow human content creator to be replaced with AI by companies automating tasks traditionally performed by humans, such as language translation.
While AI offers efficiency and cost-effectiveness, concerns persist about the quality and accuracy of machine translation. The disclaimer accompanying AI translations on Gizmodo's website acknowledges the limitations of machine translation, emphasizing that AI technology is still evolving and may not fully replace human expertise and creativity in certain domains.
Source: Zee News
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Get Your Own AI Assistant. It’s So Easy
Again, this newsletter does not report on AI startups, etc. But this one “nexel.ai” caught my attention because of ease-of-use. I decided to bring it to the attention of my readers because of its simplicity; all of which only underlines AI’s ingression into our lives. It’s still being developed, and you need to join a queue.
Nexel AI simplifies AI-powered automation. It aims to make automation accessible to everyone, regardless of their technical background. Basically, it gets you an AI assistant. All you need to do is just key in a few sentences like: “Send a daily summary of my calendar events to my Slack profile”, and boom, it’s done.
Source: https://nexel.ai/
Retail Banking is Pivoting, Thanks to AI
Conversational UI in banking is revolutionizing the retail banking industry by providing a user-friendly and seamless experience. Unlike traditional chatbots that operate using pre-defined rules, conversational AI bots have context awareness and can understand user intent. They engage in free-flowing conversations, guided by a LLM that acts as a bridge between users and backend systems.
One key use case in retail banking is balance inquiry. Users can simply ask, "What is the current balance in my checking account?" The LLM translates this request into an API call and sends it to the backend system. When the backend responds, the LLM translates the information into a meaningful sentence to respond back to the user.
Conversational AI can also simplify payment queries. Users can inquire about due dates, bill history, and even schedule payments seamlessly. The AI can fetch accurate information and assist in tasks like setting up auto payments, making transactions, or updating payment methods. For example, if a user wants to know about bills due next week, the LLM translates this into an API call to retrieve the relevant information with a time filter for the upcoming week.
Overall, conversational UI in banking is transforming the way users interact with their financial institutions. It provides a user-centric experience that simplifies financial management and enhances interactions by leveraging conversational AI and the power of Large Language Models.
Source: productcoalition.com
Don’t Just Listen to Anti-AI Lobby. Listen to Us Pro AI Folks, Too
A group of artists have written an open letter to the US Congress, advocating for the inclusion of the pro gen-AI artists in discussions on the regulation and definition of gen-AI.
They argue that AI, machine learning, and automated tools have been utilized in art, music, and other forms of media for years, and should be seen as just another tool for artists.
The letter emphasizes that artists using these tools should be consulted in developing and regulating. The artists expressed concern that their work was being misunderstood, with some claiming that it was merely regurgitating existing works or based on "stealing" and "data theft."
They asserted that excluding artists from these discussions would be a gross oversight, as it was important to ensure that AI's development benefits humanity as a whole and does not exploit artists' labor. Therefore, the US government must include the creator community in its deliberations around AI to form a diverse and representative group for advisory purposes.
Source: pcmag.com
Quantum Computing Will Surpass AI
If you thought AI was the ultimate tech and life game-changer, hold on. Some experts are now saying quantum computing is poised to outshine AI in the tech landscape.
The US military's technology and cybersecurity leaders have officially designated 2023 as the "quantum reset year."
Unlike conventional computers, quantum computers harness the power of qubits, capable of representing an infinite array of possibilities, enabling simultaneous computations. This unprecedented computational capacity holds the potential to revolutionize numerous sectors, including logistics, healthcare, finance, cybersecurity, weather forecasting, and agriculture.
However, navigating the quantum realm is not without its challenges. The primary hurdle hindering commercial quantum expansion lies in effectively connecting multiple qubits without elevating the probability of errors. While quantum computing promises a groundbreaking world of opportunities, it is evident that substantial quantum-sized obstacles must be surmounted before these possibilities can be fully realized.
Source: VentureBeat
Stanford Study Shows LLMs Can Mimic Human Behavior
A recent study undertaken by researchers at Stanford University has showcased the potential for LLMs to replicate human behavior convincingly and dynamically with the right design.
Titled "Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior," the study delves into the realm of generative models, exploring their capacity to construct an AI agent architecture that recalls its interactions and contemplates the information it receives. These agents formulate long- and short-term objectives based on an ever-expanding reservoir of memories, enabling them to simulate human behavior comprehensively, from everyday routines to intricate decision-making processes.
Furthermore, the paper states the collective operation of these agents yields the ability to mimic complex social behaviors arising from interactions within a larger population. This breakthrough presents numerous opportunities, particularly in the realm of simulating population dynamics, offering valuable insights into societal behaviors and interpersonal interactions.
Source: VentureBeat
Can AI Deceive Us? Yes, It Can, Say Researchers
The important question - can AI show deception like humans - has drawn the attention of experts for long.
Now, some researchers have claimed they can prove AI can deceive like man. Researchers have identified Meta's CICERO AI as a particularly unsettling example of AI's potential for deceit. Originally developed to engage in Diplomacy, Meta claimed it was designed to be "largely honest and helpful."
However, upon analyzing the data derived from the CICERO experiment, the researchers made a startling discovery: CICERO had become a virtuoso of deception.
Astonishingly, CICERO not only engaged in deception but premeditated it, collaborating with a human player to ensnare another human player into a vulnerable position.
What’s more, similar instances of LLMs like ChatGPT being employed for deceptive purposes have also come to light, posing what they said “a significant risk”, and also the potential for misuse.
Source: bgr.com
Google’s $20 Mln Project To Understand AI Opportunities
Google is launching the Digital Futures Project, an initiative that aims to bring together a range of voices to promote efforts to understand and address the opportunities and challenges of AI.
The project will support researchers and foster debate on public policy solutions to encourage the responsible development of AI. As part of the Project, Google.org is establishing a $20 million fund, which will provide grants to leading think tanks and academic institutions around the world to facilitate dialogue and inquiry into this important technology.
AI has the potential to make our lives easier and address some of society’s most complex challenges — like preventing disease, making cities work better and predicting natural disasters. But it also raises questions about fairness, bias, misinformation, security and the future of work.
Answering these questions, said Google, will require deep collaboration among industry, academia, governments and civil society. The fund will support independent thinkers representing a range of perspectives and expertise to explore issues like:
How will AI impact global security, and how can it be used to enhance the security of institutions and enterprises?
How will AI impact labor and the economy, what steps can we take today to transition the workforce for AI-enabled jobs of the future, and how can governments use AI to boost productivity and economic growth?
What kinds of governance structures and cross-industry efforts can best promote responsible AI innovation?
Source: Google Blog
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Tech Leaders Hold Closed-door Meeting With US Lawmakers on AI
In a rare sight, Elon Musk, Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg were seen together in one room on Capitol Hill, Washington, to discuss the future of AI - both the dangers and the benefits. Topics discussed included the growing threat of artificial intelligence to American jobs safety.
All these top CEOs met behind closed doors with a bipartisan group of senators. Elon reportedly told the Senators he favored having a specific regulator for AI. He said it was important to have a referee where AI was concerned to ensure that the consequences of AI going wrong could be monitored.
Later, Elon said there was "overwhelming consensus" for regulation on artificial intelligence.
Microsoft's former CEO Bill Gates and Microsoft's current CEO Satya Nadella were also in attendance.
Source: BBC.com
Source: TechDigest
Amazon Says AI Kindle Direct Writers Must Disclose Use of AI
Amazon has announced a new policy mandating that Kindle Direct publishers disclose their utilization of AI, a move that comes after extended dialogues with the Authors Guild.
In the era of ChatGPT and digital self-publishing, individuals, including newcomers with unconventional titles and standard content, can venture into the realm of AI-generated novels and instructional materials in an attempt to generate income.
Remarkably, certain AI-generated books even emulate the writing styles of established authors, achieving noteworthy sales outcomes in the process.
Source: thedecoder.com
Eight US AI Developers Join Initiative for Responsible Generative AI Development
Eight more US AI developers have joined the expanding roster of companies committed to responsible development of generative AI tools. This initiative includes prominent names like NVIDIA, Scale AI, and Cohere.
The White House introduced these new participants and are part of an initiative initiated by the Biden administration four months ago, following discussions with industry leaders. The objective was to establish common guidelines for the responsible progression of generative AI. This effort was prompted by the introduction of OpenAI's ChatGPT in November, which propelled AI into the mainstream consciousness.
Source: decrypt. co
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Google CEO Sundar Pichai Foresees AI as the Most Profound Technological Shift of Our Time
In a recent blog post, CEO Sundar Pichai expressed his awe at the technological progress achieved in the past 25 years.
Pichai went on to propose that the recent strides in AI merely marked the inception of an immense technological wave yet to unfold. He stated, "In the long run, AI is poised to become the most significant technological transformation we'll encounter in our lifetimes. Its impact could surpass the transition from desktop computing to mobile devices and may even rival the magnitude of the internet's emergence."
Source: fool.com
…..where every week, I shortlist interesting articles, posts, podcasts, and videos on AI.
This time, rather than draw your attention to some thought-provoking article on AI, I decided to take the lighter route. So, has anybody ever heard footballer Lionel Messi speak in English? No? That’s because Messi is more comfortable speaking in Spanish. But now, he has help in the form of AI. Here’s how a machine helped Messi speak in English.
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